NAM: Global Manufacturing Economic Update
The U.S. trade deficit rose from $69.07 billion in April to $71.24 billion in May, largely on higher goods imports. At the same time, goods exports edged to an all-time high, with exports for foods, feeds and beverages and industrial supplies and materials reaching new records.
In other encouraging news, U.S.-manufactured goods exports have rebounded strongly through the first five months of 2021. Based on non-seasonally adjusted data, they have soared 14.21% year to date relative to the same period in 2020.
Still, since the pandemic began, growth in goods imports has outpaced gains in goods exports, up 17.70% and 7.24%, respectively, since February 2020.
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from 56.0 in May, the fastest pace since April 2010, to 55.5 in June. Most of the key indicators pulled back in the latest survey, but with still-solid manufacturing activity overall and continued optimism for the coming months. Supply chain disruptions and elevated pricing pressures remain significant challenges worldwide.
For the fifth consecutive month, eight of the top nine markets for U.S.-manufactured goods had expanding manufacturing sectors in June. Manufacturing activity in Mexico remained challenged, contracting for the 15th straight month. Of the nine markets, five had some easing in their manufacturing PMIs in June, with the other four strengthening somewhat.
Chinese industrial production rose 8.8% year-over-year in May, down from 9.8% in April and 14.1% in March. While these data have decelerated, manufacturing continues to show signs of a rebound overall. Meanwhile, producer prices jumped 9.0% in May, up from 6.8% in April and the fastest pace since September 2008.
Industrial production in the Eurozone increased 0.8% in April, with industrial producer prices rising by 1.3% in May and 9.6% year-over-year, building on the 0.4% gain seen in March. With the economy reopening, retail sales jumped 4.6% in May, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9%, the lowest level in 12 months.
In the United Kingdom, industrial production fell 1.3% in April, with manufacturing output down 0.3% for the month. Since February 2020, manufacturing production has declined by 2.3%. Since February 2020, retail spending has risen 9.1%, with consumer activity rebounding sharply.
Manufacturing sales in Canada fell 2.1% in April, largely on reduced transportation equipment orders, which were hurt by the chip shortage. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 1.5% for the month. Since February 2020, new orders for manufactured goods have risen 2.4%. The industrial product price index increased 2.7% in May, jumping 16.4% year-over-year.
Manufacturers in the United States are working robustly with the Biden administration and Congress to open markets, ensure trade certainty and competitiveness and address challenges overseas, taking actions that include the following:
Joining with Mexican and Canadian counterpart associations to call for the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement to be implemented in a manner that upholds its letter and spirit
Continuing to urge the Biden administration to rapidly develop and implement a strong, comprehensive China strategy
Calling for “effective” steps to fight COVID-19, not a waiver of World Trade Organization Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights
Laying out priorities in advance of the World Health Assembly in a letter to Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra
Continuing to lead industry advocacy in support of expeditious congressional passage of a comprehensive Miscellaneous Tariff Bill